Richmond Heathrow Campaign

The Risks

Aviation in the First World is exceptionally safe. However, in the past two decades there have been crashes close to airports in Paris, Amsterdam and New York all of which have resulted in ground fatalities.

Several factors compound the risk of an accident happening as a result of Heathrow expansion:

Volume: the proposed increase in air traffic by nearly 50%
Complexity: the increased challenge of routinely managing two approaches, rather then just one approach, to Heathrow
Change: the disruption resulting from making major changes to airspace in the south-east of England

These increase the likelihood of:

A mid-air collision because air traffic controllers have too much congested airspace to manage
Crash as a result of difficulty in manoeuvreing in congested air space to return to the airport following takeoff problems or a missed approach

In addition to the impact on passengers in the air, the area in the vicinity of an airport is particularly vulnerable if and when an accident occcurs.

We believe that the consideration given to air safety so far is inadequate, and are concerned that it is being driven more by commercial gain than risk mitigation.

Air Congestion, Complexity and Risk

The skies over south-east England are amongst the most congested in the world. Aircraft coming into Heathrow join their final approach paths around 23 miles from the airport. This enables them to adopt a continuous descent, which minimises their noise impact.

The addition of a third runway will make the situation even more complicated. Airspace may have to be redesigned as far afield as Southampton and Luton airports. The current four stacks will need to be repositioned.

Managing a significant rise in aircraft movements in south-east England's crowded airspace introduces increased risk of accidents. The period of transition to any new regime also carries with it its own further risks as pilots and ground staff have to adapt to change.

Think what could have happened ...

Two recent incidents - one at Heathrow and the other in New York - may have come close to killing people on the ground:

The crash landing of BA038 on 17^th January 2008 at Heathrow narrowly missing houses in the Hatton Cross area.
The ditching of US Airways Flight 1549 in the Hudson River next to New York's skyscrapers about six minutes after takeoff on 15^th January 2009.

... and consider what has happened

In the past two decades there have been three air crashes close to First World airports in which people on the ground have been killed:

On 12^th November 2001, an American Airlines A300 hit wake turbulence on its takeoff from New York JFK Airport. The First Officer appears to have suffered a loss of situational awareness in his response to this, and the resulting crash into a residential area killed five people on the ground as well as all but one of the 260 on board.
On 25^th July 2000, an Air France Concorde hit a strip of metal on its departure runway at Paris Charles de Gaulle, destroying a tyre whose fragments ruptured a fuel tank. The resulting fire and crash into a hotel claimed nine casualties on the ground as well as all 100 on board.
On 4^th October 1992, an El Al cargo 747-200 suffered structural failure on its departure from Amsterdam Schipol Airport. On attempting to return to the airport it crashed into an apartment building killing 39 people as well as all four on the aircraft.

Mid-air collisions are also a risk when air traffic controllers have too much to do. On 1^st July 2002, an imminent separation infringement in Swiss airspace was not noticed by air traffic controllers in time. As a result, a cargo 757 and passenger Tuploev 154 collided killing 71 people in the air.